Brian Mcfarlane said
1 year, 4 months ago: We all work with people we know, like and trust. If you approach someone you know and they like you, trust you, you increase your chances 10x more that they will accept your offer for guest post.
Here is a link to a must read article on the subject of how to find a social media influencer
http://www.hugoguzman.com/2010/08/how-to-engage-with-a-social-media-influencer/
If you really looking to build relationships in your vertical market or just connect with powerful people, you need to understand what he is outlining in his post.
So, getting back to increasing your odds of getting accepted for guest posts.
Step 1. Comment on their blog with insightful responses
Step 2. Follow them on twitter, re-tweet their stuff, and initiate a dialogue
Step 3. Send them a direct email if you can
Step 4. Let them know you
Step 5.Don’t be offensive
Step 6. Don’t judge a book by it’s cover
Step 7. Check your ego at the door
Step 8. Build trust through competence, sincerity and keeping your promises
Step 9. Communicate your competence through writing
Step 10. Write a short bio, with at least two links to your content and site
Last point give them a chance to breath and absorb your blog content, then and only then, you should reach out and ask for a gust post on their blog.
The ultimate goal here is to build long term relationships with other bloggers that can help lead you to a better life and more quality links to your blog.